Monday, March 24, 2014

Projecting Hitting Ability


I subscribe to a bottom- to- top approach in evaluating hitters. 

I ask my younger hitters this question: “If you and I were to build a house, would we need a strong foundation?”

They usually say yes, with a laugh. With that said, we work on establishing a strong base. In my opinion, this is a fundamental component of evaluating a position player’s hitting ability. I look for a smooth balance in weight shift from front foot to back foot. I want to see a powerful shift of hip rotation from back to front. Additionally, I want to see how the hitter sets up at the plate: I observe where his feet are and if the stance is open or closed; if the hitter is up in the box or back and if the hitter stands closer to the plate or further away.
Another question that I usually ask is: “If you were to throw a punch at me, how would you throw it?” I get a laugh or a smirk, then the hitter will demonstrate. More times than not, the hitter will wind up and throw a wide punch. I then push the hitter slightly and the hitter loses balance. I throw a make-believe punch with my hands closer to my body and ask the hitter “Push me!” More smirks and laughter. If I ate my Wheaties that morning, I keep my balance and I’m steady. I then ask, “What hand position gives me more power, balance, and control? Hands further away from my body or hands closer to my body?” 

Point being, I look for hands closer to the body that work fluidly with hip rotation, as smoothly as a pendulum on a grandfather clock. I look for hands that are going back in the load and explosive coming “to and through” the ball.

Other important things that I look for in a hitter is visual swagger. Not cockiness, but confidence. The hitter has a plan and understands the in-game situation (count, who’s on base, how many outs, tendencies of the pitcher). I don’t want to see “paralysis by analysis” but more of being your own best coach. Does the hitter adjust from game to game, at bat to at bat, and pitch by pitch? Also, I look for point of contact. Does the hitter consistently square up the ball? Does the hitter finish the swing after contact? On that note, I work with hitters on visualizing hitting the ball with their hands. “Eyes to, hands thru!” In terms of finishing, we talk about visualizing the hitting of four baseballs from contact to finish.

In my opinion, all of these observations vary according to the developmental stage of the particular hitter. Obviously, my projected evaluation of a middle school player might be different than a high school player.  Similarly, a projected evaluation could be different from high school to college and college to professional.

Overall, there are myriad variables, including the mindset of the hitter, if the hitter is coachable and has inner confidence, as well as the potential for physical and mental growth.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Prospecting for Gold





On the surface, the General Manager's position in professional baseball seems glamorous, but behind the scenes, it's an extremely difficult and all-inclusive position. A GM is responsible for all decision-making aspects of a baseball franchise with the main goal of delivering a championship team to ownership. Some of those responsibilities include the following: the hiring and firing of coaching staff, player development, scouting, negotiating contracts, mediating player disputes, as well as being involved with the selling of tickets, television, radio sponsorships, and merchandise for the club. If all of this wasn't enough, a GM will represent an organization at league meetings, salary arbitration, negotiate with agents, prepare for amateur drafts, manage payroll, and comply with the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. A successful General Manager will serve as a bridge between the Chairman of the Board and the management staff. By expressing an overall vision and developing a team mission, the GM will show leadership; this attribute allows the GM to successfully identify team needs and provide solutions.

The General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, stated that he doesn't interact with players as frequently as when he was an Assistant Scouting Director or Director of Player Development. Therefore, he feels that it's extremely important to trust an organization's scouts and player development personnel. In his current role, he shared that the hardest aspect of his position is addressing rumors associated with social media. Additionally, he acknowledged that dealing with player agents can sometimes be problematic. Mr. Melvin's philosophy is to be a strong draft and player development organization. Being a small-market club, the revenue generated for television is less than the large market teams. This creates more of a priority in maintaining a high fan base in Milwaukee. From a player standpoint, the Milwaukee General Manager looks for youth up the middle (SS, CF, C, P). His desire is to develop home-grown talent and be able to trade prospects for major league ready players. By accomplishing this, the Brewers can look to be competitive without risking payroll on high-priced free agents. Sometimes, there is a need for a free agent, but Melvin confirmed that the small-market team cannot be aggressive like large-market franchises. This overall mindset has led to some success for Brewers, but Doug Melvin feels the biggest challenge for a franchise is sustaining success.

Another baseball operations role that contributes to a successful club is player development.
The Assistant Director of Baseball Operations for the New York Yankees, Billy Hart, played college baseball at USC and was subsequently drafted by the Houston Astros in the 5th round of the 2005 draft. After five seasons, Billy was released and went back to school. After completing his MBA, Mr. Hart started his second career in baseball via the operations side. Some of his responsibilities include: player logistics for spring training, player placement, roster management, contract origination, and talent evaluation. During the season, Billy will go to each minor league affiliate before and after the All-Star break to evaluate players based upon performance and trade evaluation. In the off-season, the Assistant Director of Baseball Operations will work on free-agent contracts, manage department budgets, and conduct financial and statistical analysis. Also, Mr. Hart will go to amateur tournaments and compile a prospect analysis book. He takes the responsibility for putting together organizational structures aimed at player performance. 

For an on-the-field perspective, I spoke to the hitting coach of the AA Chattanooga Lookouts, Orv Franchuk. Orv was gracious enough to explain what a typical work day for him is like: review practice and game footage of players' at-bats, conduct specific player hitting drills, overhand toss, tee work, traditional batting practice, and charting hitters’ performance. Mr. Franchuk described today's player as being more refined, but the mental side of the game should be more of a focus at the minor league level. He suggested that mental makeup is what separates a AA player from a major league player. The Lookouts hitting instructor looks for a strong work ethic. Orv encourages players to work on a game plan before they come to the plate, for example, working on pitch selection, location, and various game situations. Orv said "A lot of AA players have the physical ability for the majors, but not the mental ability." Mr. Franchuk emphasized that the most important part of his job is to develop trusting relationships with his players. By encouraging players to be better communicators and staying open to suggestions, the players will adjust to expected failure as they progress to higher levels of ball. 

Continuing with the top-down approach, you must look at one of the most important aspects of a successful franchise: scouting. It's often said by various front office personnel that scouting is the "life-blood" of the game. These people find the talent and project a player's raw tools that hopefully will translate into big league skills. The scouting hierarchy is as follows: Associate Scout, Area Scout, Regional Supervisor, National Cross-Checker, Assistant Director of Scouting, and Director of Scouting. In most organizations, player information flows up the chain of command to the Director of Player Development or the General Manager. Additionally, Pro Scouts and Special Assignment Scouts might report directly to either Director or the General Manager. Regardless of your level or title, your main objective is to make an opinion based upon the players that you see. Scouts come in all shapes and sizes, some are former players, and some just started at the bottom and worked their way up. Credibility is established based upon your professionalism, ability to scout, and communicating your reports effectively.

 Hudson Belinsky, Associate Scout for the Tampa Bay Rays got his start by going to games and doing his own scouting reports. He started a blog and subsequently received an internship opportunity with Baseball Prospectus. On one occasion, Hudson travelled two hours to see a particular pitcher and his passion was recognized by a scout in attendance. This scout appreciated Hudson's initiative and recommended him. 

Bryan Hayes, Assistant Manager to Amateur Scouting Director for the New York Mets started as a bat boy  for the Norfolk Tides and subsequently became a student manager for Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. Based upon that experience, Bryan got a position with the San Diego Padres in the Community Relations department and was noticed by Paul Depodesta, VP of Scouting and Player Development, who brought him over to the New York Mets. Prior to the 2013 draft, Mr. Hayes was responsible for registering each player with an identification number and writing up a biography of those players. Currently, he's helping the organization prepare for the 2014 draft by reading all scouting reports, following up with area scouts, and making sure the scouting reports can be used effectively by the Director of Scouting. Once the 2014 draft is completed, Bryan will resume scouting duties and see players approximately two times per month. Mr. Hayes looks for tools, mental make-up, and body type to complete a player profile. By looking at potential prospects, Bryan makes a determination regarding the player's desire. Mr. Hayes stated, "The player could have all the talent, but you have to want it.”

RJ Carvis, Video Coordinator of Player Development for the Los Angeles Dodgers started as a Division III College Pitcher and eventually became a fall roster walk on for Arizona State University. While playing in the Coastal Plains League, RJ hurt his arm, which ended his baseball dreams as a player. After his playing career ended, Mr. Carvis was able to get a Spring training job with the Oakland Athletics in their stadium operations department and subsequently got an intern opportunity with the New York Mets media operations. RJ is currently assigned to a minor league affiliate within the Dodgers organization and he is responsible for video scouting reports on players. Mr. Carvis likes to look for little things when scouting players: for example, the difference between head movement and hand movements of hitters in warm-ups versus live game action. RJ stated, "The natural talents shine through when a player makes small adjustments.”

Taking all this information into consideration, I would like to make a personal assessment of the Atlanta Braves organization. The original Braves ball club was established in 1871 and has been in Atlanta since 1966. In 2017, they will relocate to a $672 million complex. From 1991-2005, the Atlanta Braves won fourteen consecutive division titles. In their history, they have won sixteen division titles, seventeen National League Pennants, and three World Series. They remain the only Major League Baseball franchise to win the World Series in three different cities. In 2013, the Braves were the National League East Champions with a record of 96-66. Their home attendance was approximately 2.6 million with an average of 31,000 fans per game and an average ticket price of approximately $17. According to Forbes Magazine, the franchise was valued at $629 million, with a 2013 payroll of approximately $90 million and revenue of approximately $225 million. In the last three years, the Braves have drafted and signed approximately 94 players. Out of the total, 49 have been pitchers, 12 outfielders, 10 catchers, and 8 shortstops. Additionally, only 13 were high-school players. It would appear that their drafting strategy follows the idea of being strong up the middle and having more seasoned prospects.

In regards to the structure and behavior of this team, the Braves strive for consistency. Whether it's in the draft, player development, front office, or on-the -field personnel, the Braves strive to hold onto their home grown talent and maintain strong leadership. With the most recent long-term signings of Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Julio Teheran, and contract extensions given to Frank Wren, General Manager, and Fredi Gonzalez, Manager, it is clearly evident that John Schuerholz, the President, as well as ownership, have a shared vision of continued success.

Regardless of all the smart front-office moves, nothing would be possible without the scouting department. The Director of Scouting, Tony Demacio, looks for players who "dance in the middle of the diamond”and subscribes to the "old school" ideology of finding players that "can't live without the game." Tony said, "They play the game the way it should be played, hard." Also, he adheres to the previous Scouting Director Paul Snyder's philosophy to build a club around pitching. In his opinion, the Atlanta Braves scouts have done a very good job of getting inside the home of potential prospects to find those high character players. By adhering to an honest, professional, and discreet approach, the scouting staff has been very successful over the years. Overall, this windfall of talent has resulted in raw prospects transitioning into Major League stars.












Thursday, February 13, 2014

O Captain, Our Captain!

Unless you're living under a rock or currently in Russia, you now know that Derek Sanderson Jeter will be retiring from Major League Baseball after the 2014 season. This will surely leave a void in the hearts of many baseball fans across the world. Regardless of being a Yankee fan or not, one cannot deny the fact that Jeter has set an extraordinary example of how to play this game we still call "America's Pastime". Jeter has carried himself with dignity and displayed the utmost respect for his craft. The Yankee captain never seemed to take his talents for granted. This was clearly evident in the shortstop's consistent effort to improve his game despite past accolades and personal accomplishments. In Jeter's mind, a season would not be successful unless the Yankees were World Champions. This was not just lip service, Jeter expected to win and held himself and everyone around him to a higher standard. That's what a leader does. Instead of feeling dejected, let's reflect on a historic career of one of the games best ambassadors.

How many great thoughts come to mind when you look back on Derek Jeter's career? How many of those thrills have reminded you of certain milestones in your own life? Just like stitches keep a baseball intact, those euphoric feelings of "where you were" and "what happened"entwine themselves in the baseball memories that run through our heart. One can share the exciting Derek Jeter moments with future generations, creating increased passion for the game of  baseball. This is one of the reasons why we should celebrate a player like Jeter.

For those of you that aren't as emotional, but numbers driven, we can look at Jeter's career from a more statistical perspective. Jeter ranks #1 all-time in seven offensive categories for this storied franchise: Games Played (2,602), AB's (10,614), Plate Appearances (11,968), Hits (3,316), Singles (2,470), SB's (348), Times on Base (4,527). Additionally, he is ranked in the top five for: Doubles (525)/(2nd), Runs Scored (1,876)/(3rd), Total Bases (4,739)/(3rd), and top 10 for: RBI's (1,261)/(6th), AVG (.312)/(7th), HR's (256)/(9th). That's pretty impressive for a lanky, 6'3", 180 pound inside-out hitter. When you consider past great Yankee players that have donned the pinstripes, these statistical achievements become legendary.

For our skeptics that have questioned Jeter's place as one of the greatest players to ever play the game, we will take a peek at the sabermetrics. According to MLB Network Analyst, Brian Kenny who hosts "Clubhouse Confidential", Jeter's OWAR (Offensive Wins Above Replacement) numbers place him 2nd (94) on the All-Time list for shortstops. He trails only Honus Wagner (106.1) and ranks ahead of Cal Ripken (77.2), Arky Vaughn (70.9) and Luke Appling (70.3). His overall WAR (71.5) takes a hit when you factor in defense, but his RAA (Runs Above Average), ( 369.5) places him 3rd among "All-Time Shortstops", only trailing Wagner (704.7) and Vaughn (472).

Jeter's 3,316 hits puts him at the top of the class among shortstops and his .381 OBP/.446 SLG%/.828 OPS place him in the "elite" company of Wagner (.391 OBP/.467 SLG%/.858 OPS). If that wasn't enough, "Captain Clutch" has been beyond reproach on the grand stage of playoff baseball. Jeter's 200 hits, 111 runs, 61 RBI's, .308 AVG, .374 OBP, .465 SLG%, and .838 OPS over the course of 158 postseason games has only added to the mystique of our "Mr. November".

So, let's all reminisce and bask in the reflected glory of a wonderful baseball career and revel in Derek Jeter's final farewell season. Who knows, maybe some of those "Yankee Ghosts" will appear in October and give him that one last farewell present, a World Series trophy.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Overvalued Asset: Is Josh Hamilton Overrated?

It does not feel good to single out any Major League player and question their individual value, but baseball has become more of a business than a club. Following that line of reasoning, salary should be commensurate with production. This has not been the case for one of the biggest free agent signings of 2013. 

Josh Hamilton of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed a five year deal for $125 million dollars. That averages out to $25 million dollars per year. Keep in mind that the average salary for an Angel player is approximately $4.8 million per year and the average salary for a Major League Outfielder is approximately $3.8 million per year. 
I’m sure the Angel franchise was hoping for Hamilton’s offensive production to be on par with his time spent as a Texas Ranger. If Hamilton’s 2013 statistics are any indication of the next four years, Josh Hamilton will be extremely overvalued as a player. 

Currently, Josh Hamilton ranks as the twenty-third highest paid player in all of baseball. Hamilton’s OPS (.641) as an Outfielder for 2013 has him rated last in the Major Leagues for all position players with at least 251 at bats. That’s a very disturbing statistic. Another glaring disparity is the 2013 WAR and salary comparison between Hamilton, $17 million salary, 1.5 WAR versus fellow Outfield teammate, Mike Trout, $510,000 salary, 9.2 WAR. Additionally, Josh Hamilton posted average career lows in every major offensive category. In 2014, he will be due another $17 million for his age thirty-three season. At this point, Hamilton will be four years removed from his break-out MVP season in which he posted a 1.044 OPS and 8.9 WAR. 

Can he reclaim that 2010 form? Unfortunately, age and history are not on his side. Hopefully, 2013 was an aberration and Hamilton can finally settle into California living. Obviously, one must consider the human factor of nagging injuries and Hamilton trying to break the tobacco habit. 

Regardless, the club had a losing season in 2013, going 78-84, with average attendance and television ratings dropping slightly. This was not what Angel ownership expected from this team and it’s high-priced free agent.

Blue-chip Prospect: Can Rob Kaminsky Make It To The Show?

A pitching prospect that I want to evaluate is the 2013 first round draft choice of the St. Louis Cardinals, Rob Kaminsky. This former St. Joseph’s High School Senior was the 28th overall pick in last year’s draft. The young pitcher turned down a full scholarship to the University of North Carolina to sign with the Cardinals at a signing bonus of $1,785,300. This past season, the eighteen-year old Kaminsky pitched in the Gulf Coast League and posted the following numbers: 

8 GS, 0-3, 3.68 ERA, 22 IP, 23 H, 9 ER, 28 K, 9 BB 

This small sampling shows that Kaminsky seems to have swing-and-miss stuff. If you take a look at his scouting reports, you will notice the following physical description: long arms, broad shoulders, thick build, athletic and durable. His abilities are described as such: good command of Fastball (91-92) and secondary pitches. Solid curve (76-79) with ++ potential, 11-5 action, plenty of rotation, thrown for strikes. Clean and simple mechanics. Hides the ball well. Good arm action that’s maintained with secondary pitches. 

The six foot, 190-pound lefty has been compared to Mark Mulder and projects to be a serviceable 2nd or 3rd starter at the major league level if he can develop his change-up. Some scouts that followed up on him this past summer have stated that he is aggressive on the mound and controls the tempo of the game. In his short career, he has already started to mature in professional baseball and has adjusted well to the Cardinals player development philosophy. 

Kaminsky is considered to be extremely valuable to the St. Louis Cardinals franchise because while solid pitching is rare, rarer still is left-handed pitching. If you follow the Cardinal blueprint, you know that they pride themselves on developing a strong stable of pitching prospects. On the surface, this seems like a perfect match, but only time will tell if if this prospect can continue along the path to the big leagues.

New Stat: RIPA%

A valuable statistic is runs. If your team has more runs than the other team at the end of nine innings, you win the game. It doesn’t matter how the runs are created, but the fact they count on the scoreboard. So my statistical analysis is very simple: it’s called RIPA % (Runs in Plate Appearances percentage). You take the total amount of runs that a player scores and divide that number by the total amount of plate appearances that the player has. Obviously, the players with the higher percentages would be considered better run producers. This stat is valuable because you can structure your batting order based upon the players that have the highest RIPA %. In essence, you would want to get those players more at-bats over the course of the season. Additionally, as a Manager, you could use this stat as an additional component in any late inning strategies that you might want to implement. A pinch hitter with a better RIPA % could be the difference in a close ballgame.

Pure Hitter: "Vottomatic" Joey Votto vs Pure Power: "Big Donkey" Adam Dunn

One of the established Major League players in my meeting the criteria of “pure hitter” would be Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds. The Canadian-born player has adjusted very well to “America’s Pastime”. Votto is currently the active career leader in On Base % at .419. Also, “VottoMatic” places third among active career leaders in OPS at a .960 clip, which only trails Miguel Cabrera (.967) and Albert Pujols (1.008). 

So what makes this talented 1st Baseman a pure hitter? Well, he has a great understanding of the strike zone and is able to maintain tremendous balance throughout his swing. No matter where the ball is pitched, Votto can adjust his hands and bat plane to make consistent contact. The smooth transfer of weight from back leg and shoulder to the front side allows him to barrel up the ball on a regular basis. 

In 2013, Votto led the majors in pitches seen with 3033. He abstained from 61.1 percent of them. This equated to 4.18 pitches per plate appearance. These statistics placed Votto in the top 10 of all players within these categories. Additionally, Votto was patient enough to wait for his preferred pitch: “the heater”. Joey Votto’s OPS against Fastballs in 2013 was 1.024 which only trailed Cabrera (1.084), Choo (1.066), and Goldschmidt (1.043). 

Because of these advanced skills, Votto can be more selective at the plate and force the pitcher to work harder. This patient approach works to the advantage of the pure hitter by creating a defensive mind set in the pitcher. 

Now, the pitcher is frustrated and rattled. What’s next? Well, here comes the big dog and he wants to eat. 

My big dog power hitter is Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox. The “Big Donkey” in my estimation truly swings from the heels. For the most part, he either exploits the pitcher’s weaknesses by hitting a mammoth shot or spins himself into a corkscrew. In my opinion, this visually defines a quintessential power bat. Dunn consistently puts up strong power numbers and provides protection for other hitters in the line-up. Even though Adam Dunn’s production numbers are not consistent like a Votto, he provides an important function for a ball club. 

Dunn stuck out 189 times in 2013, hit 34 home runs, and walked 76 times. Dunn’s swing/miss percentage might be 31.3%, but his home run ratio to at bats is 14.7 for his career which only trails Ryan Howard (14.0) among all active players. 

Another interesting stat that speaks to power hitters is Secondary Average. This stat was first devised by Bill James and is documented in his annual handbook. The number reflects a player who hits for power, takes walks and steals bases. Granted, Dunn is not a speed demon, but he hits a lot of home runs and gets walked a great deal. Adam Dunn’s secondary average is .459 making him #1 for all active players in the Majors. 

Over the course of his thirteen-year career, Adam Dunn has amassed 440 home runs, 2220 strikeouts, and 1246 walks placing him in the top five of active leaders within those categories. Like they say, “There are only two sure things in life: death and taxes”. Well, in Adam Dunn’s case, there are three: hit bombs, create tradewinds, or trot to first. 

Both types of players are equally important when you’re trying to put together a strong offensive team. The different styles are necessary to be a well-balanced threat in today’s game. The combination of finesse and raw power can be lethal. The pure hitter will be more fluid in his approach at the plate, taking more pitches and hitting to all fields. The power hitter will be more aggressive and hit with reckless abandon by trying to hit the cover off the ball. 

Even though both types of hitters are necessary, raw power is rare. This tool from a scouting perspective is highly sought after, but hard to find. Finding a player of this magnitude can change the outcome of a game with one swing of the bat. The fear factor alone can have a devastating effect on an opposing pitching staff. Like Earl Weaver would say, “The easiest way around the bases is with one swing of the bat”.