Recent trades that interest me are James Shields, Wade Davis and an unnamed player from the Tampa Bay Rays for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard from the Kansas City Royals. This trade occurred on December 9th, 2012. The unnamed player was revealed to be Elliot Johnson and was officially sent on February 12th, 2013 by the Royals to complete the trade.
The salary breakdown for the Royals is as follows: James Shields, $9 million for 2013 and a $12 million dollar option for 2014 with a $1 million buyout. Wade Davis, $2.8 million for 2013, $4.8 million for 2014, and options for 2015 - $7 million, 2016 - $8 million, 2017 - $10 million. Elliot Johnson made $520,500 for 2013 and was subsequently released on August 21, 2013. That’s approximately $55.1 million in contracts provided all options are taken by the Royals. For the Tampa Bay Rays: Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard are making league minimum based upon their various professional levels.
The marketing implications vary based upon who you speak to on either side of the trade. The Royals had $36 million dollars in brand revenue versus $31 million for the Rays. It’s hard to say if the additional $5 million in merchandising revenue for the Royals can be attributed to the trade, but an evaluation by Forbes Magazine Online states that, on average, each Royals fan spends $39 per game as opposed to $29 for Rays fans.
Ticket sales are as follows: $38 million for the Royals with a $22 average ticket price which included a $1 increase for 2013 and $32 million for the Rays with a $20 average ticket price. In total, the Royals had approximately 240,000 more fans than the Rays in 2013. Regardless of these slight differences, the trade does not seem to be the cause.
Both franchises have struggled, for different reasons, to provide a quality fan experience. The Royals, mainly for lack of a winning product, and the Rays for a dilapidated facility coupled with alternative entertainment options for fans in the Tampa-St. Pete area.
As far as the type of players associated with this trade, the Royals received an established right-handed pitching talent in James Shields with the compliment of Wade Davis to serve the role of starter and reliever. The Rays received future talent to be nurtured within their system. The Royals had a successful season by winning 14 more games than they did in 2012 with a record of 86-76. Yet they still finished 3rd and failed to make the playoffs. Conversely, the Rays won two more games than they did in 2012 with a record of 92-71. This was good enough for 2nd place in the A.L. East and earned the club a Wild Card game and subsequently a A.L.D.S. opportunity.
Did these players contribute to the Win-Loss records of their respective clubs? According to Baseball Reference, the 2013 WAR values for those traded players that contributed to their respective club’s win totals are as follows: Shields 4.1 WAR,
Davis -2.1 WAR, Elliot Johnson 0.9 WAR, Myers 2.0 WAR, and Odorizzi 0.3 WAR. Interestingly, Myers WAR total of 2 is equal to the number of additional wins the club had in 2013 over 2012. One could suggest that Wil Myers 2 wins above replacement value allowed the Rays to compete in an elimination Wild Card game as opposed to the Texas Rangers who finished the season with 91 wins.
The Royals and Rays negotiated this trade for different reasons. The Kansas City General Manager, Dayton Moore, said, “It’s not easy giving up prospects...It’s time for us to start winning at the Major League level and we have to use all our resources. Our farm system is certainly one of them”. The Rays Executive V.P. of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman said, “We’re constantly working to balance the present and the future, and always trying to thread the needle...As an organization we rely more on the contributions of young players basically than anyone else in baseball, and with this trade we’re hoping to replenish our system and add a lot of players we feel can help us sustain this run of success that we’ve had for the last five years”.
I believe that both organizations achieved their short term goals regarding this particular trade but only the Rays seem like they will benefit long term. Here’s why; the key players, namely Shields and Myers, contributed to their respective clubs. James Shields went 13-9 in 34 games, posting a 3.15 E.R.A. with 196 K’s over 228+ innings. Wil Myers batted .293 over 88 games with 98 hits, 13 HR’s and 53 RBI’s. These stats earned Myers Rookie of the Year honors. Even though both players contributed, the trade seems lopsided in hindsight. I say this because Shields is a free agent after this season and Kansas City might be unwilling to or incapable of signing him. As far as Davis is concerned, those future option years might not be worth the money. Also, the Royals still need more parts to make the playoffs, let alone get to their first World Series in almost 30 years. The “we need to win now” approach might backfire and sting even more if Myers continues to grow and establish himself as the next Tampa Bay Rays “franchise player”.
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