The Oakland Athletics might be looking to add more punch at 2B. Susan Slusser of SFgate.com reported on June 7th that "Scouts following the A's lately believe the American League's top team has just one weakness: second base." "They could use more production there," one scout said Saturday. "That's where they could use some help."
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
MLB Rumors: The Best Infield Options at the Deadline
The trading deadline for Major League Baseball is six weeks away and rumors are starting to heat up. That said, there are a few infielders available for clubs that are in the market. Four players in particular have been subject to trade talk or are currently not content with their playing situation or contract.
Yankees Rumors: NY Must Test Trade Market
The New York Yankees are in need of pitching before the trade deadline. According to Joel Sherman of The New York Post , the Yankees must test the market to improve their rotation.
Sherman observed, "Sure, they could make the playoffs as constituted based on the mediocrity of the AL East combined with the superiority of Masahiro Tanaka and their late-game bullpen. But it is a dangerous strategy because the Yankees feel they are one more rotation injury or significant dip in production away from being out of counter-punches."
Padres Rumors: San Diego to Conduct Fire Sale
The San Diego Padres ownership yesterday fired their general manager, Josh Byrnes, yesterday and might be looking to continue their summer house cleaning.
According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, "As for other hitters, start with San Diego, which would like to conduct a fire sale, with Carlos Quentin and/or Seth Smith sought after." "Chris Denorfia is another Padres outfielder who could change teams."
Yankees Rumors: NY Expects to Make Trade
As always, the Yankees are looking to makes trades before the July 31st deadline. Even the casual baseball fan wouldn’t be shocked by this. David Lennon of Newsday.com reported on June 18th that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expects to make a trade in the next few weeks. Cashman said, " We usually make moves every year, so I expect to make moves again."
Blue Jays Rumors: Toronto Looking for an Infielder
The Blue Jays are in the market for an infielder. On June 18th, Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet.ca reported that the Toronto Blue Jays would like to add an everyday infielder between now and July 31.
“We’ve absolutely had some dialogue about some position players that could come in and be an improvement or an upgrade over what we have now,” Alex Anthopoulos, GM and Senior VP of Baseball Operations, said.
The Blue Jays have a record of 41-33 and are barely holding on to a 1 1/2 game lead in the American League East. After just being swept by the Yankees, the ball club could definitely use an infusion of stability at second base. In my feature article yesterday at sportsrumoralert.com, I offered a list of four infielders that I believe are ripe for the taking.
The opening day payroll for Toronto was a tick above $137 million with only about $4 million allocated to the position of second base. After only 11 games,Maicer Izturis went down with a tear of his lateral collateral ligament in his left knee. Currently, the Blue Jays are relying on the platoon situation between Munenori Kawasaki and Steven Tolleson . Unfortunately, their offensive totals are anemic. With combined splits of (.219/.274/.386), 10 extra base hits, eight RBIs, and eight runs scored, the team is definitely in need of a change.
The boys from Canada have not had the opportunity to partake in a “Fall Classic” since 1993.
Last month, Peter Gammons quoted the GM: “We are pretty much maxed out in terms of payroll, but more important, we cannot keep trading our young pitchers”.
The question now: are the Blue Jays ready to become contenders or stay pretenders?
Mets Rumors: David Wright Doesn't Want to be Traded
New York Mets third baseman David Wright does not want to be traded, according to Kevin Kiernan of nypost.com: "Wright told The Post he wants no part of being traded." "I knew that when I signed my extension, I knew that things were not going to be easy...(I am) still 100 percent committed to the Mets," Wright said.
Monday, June 9, 2014
Astros Rumors: Houston, Jason Castro Talking Extension
Astros catcher Jason Castro will serve as their player representative to the union but has not discussed details of his own contract status. Evan Drellich from Ultimate Astros reported on June 4th that Castro has engaged in preliminary talks with the Astros on a long term deal. Castro said, "It's something you try not to think about obviously during the season, but you know, I would love to be part of the Astros moving forward."
Castro was selected to his first All-Star Game in 2013 and posted a respectable 4.3 WAR. Over the last four seasons, the 27-year old left-handed hitting catcher has averaged 135 hits, 69 runs, 60 RBIs, 33 doubles, and 16 home runs. His .993 fielding % and .738 OPS compares favorably with Yadier Molina (.994 fielding % and .744 OPS). Castro was drafted 10th overall out of Stanford in 2008 and recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one year deal in 2014 for $2.45 million.
If you're a savvy baseball fan, you're probably taking note on what's going on in Houston. Jeffrey Luhnow, GM of the Houston Astros, has brought a more analytic business approach to signing players. Locking in young talent to long-term deals and postponing free agency seems to be the wave of the future. As a recipe for championship success, smart teams look to be strong up the middle: pitcher, catcher, shortstop, and center fielder. Jason Castro is part of that plan, provided the Astros can sign him to a long-term deal and avoid his pending free agency in 2017. This is even more important when you consider the young Astros arms that are being developed within the system.
Castro was selected to his first All-Star Game in 2013 and posted a respectable 4.3 WAR. Over the last four seasons, the 27-year old left-handed hitting catcher has averaged 135 hits, 69 runs, 60 RBIs, 33 doubles, and 16 home runs. His .993 fielding % and .738 OPS compares favorably with Yadier Molina (.994 fielding % and .744 OPS). Castro was drafted 10th overall out of Stanford in 2008 and recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one year deal in 2014 for $2.45 million.
If you're a savvy baseball fan, you're probably taking note on what's going on in Houston. Jeffrey Luhnow, GM of the Houston Astros, has brought a more analytic business approach to signing players. Locking in young talent to long-term deals and postponing free agency seems to be the wave of the future. As a recipe for championship success, smart teams look to be strong up the middle: pitcher, catcher, shortstop, and center fielder. Jason Castro is part of that plan, provided the Astros can sign him to a long-term deal and avoid his pending free agency in 2017. This is even more important when you consider the young Astros arms that are being developed within the system.
Phillies Rumors: Philadelphia Making it Known that Anyone on Their Roster is for Sale
Nick Cafardo of bostonglobe.com reported on June 7th that the Phillies have made it known that anyone on their roster is for sale.
A fire sale this early in the season may be premature considering the club has played only 61 games this season with a record of 25-36. Even though the Phillies are in last place and seven games out of first place, anything can happen. Is there something under the surface that hasn’t come to light yet or are the Phillies just looking to shed some excess contract weight?
Even though the current 2014 payroll for the Philadelphia Phillies is approximately $178 million, the total salaries owed to the core 2008 World Championship players are approximately $400 million inclusive of options: Ryan Howard, $98 million,Cliff Lee, $77.5 million, ,Cole Hamels, $132.5 million, Chase Utley, $40 million,Jimmy Rollins, $22 millionCarlos Ruiz, $30 million. Additionally, free agentsA.J. Burnett, Jonathan Papelbon, andMarlon Byrd, are owed approximately $80 million over the next three years combined. The remaining members of the 25 man roster are all under one-year contracts with the exception of Miguel Gonzalez, ($12 million) for a total of approximately $40 million.
Just recently, the Sporting News ranked Ruben Amaro Jr., Phillies G.M. as the worst general manager in all of MLB. Amaro’s lack of sabermetric thinking coupled with an aging roster of stars might very well be the catalyst behind this rumor. Regardless, if the Phillies hope to rebuild their struggling franchise, they need to seriously consider available trade options. Sometimes in baseball, as in life, you have to let go of the past and embrace the future.
A fire sale this early in the season may be premature considering the club has played only 61 games this season with a record of 25-36. Even though the Phillies are in last place and seven games out of first place, anything can happen. Is there something under the surface that hasn’t come to light yet or are the Phillies just looking to shed some excess contract weight?
Even though the current 2014 payroll for the Philadelphia Phillies is approximately $178 million, the total salaries owed to the core 2008 World Championship players are approximately $400 million inclusive of options: Ryan Howard, $98 million,Cliff Lee, $77.5 million, ,Cole Hamels, $132.5 million, Chase Utley, $40 million,Jimmy Rollins, $22 millionCarlos Ruiz, $30 million. Additionally, free agentsA.J. Burnett, Jonathan Papelbon, andMarlon Byrd, are owed approximately $80 million over the next three years combined. The remaining members of the 25 man roster are all under one-year contracts with the exception of Miguel Gonzalez, ($12 million) for a total of approximately $40 million.
Just recently, the Sporting News ranked Ruben Amaro Jr., Phillies G.M. as the worst general manager in all of MLB. Amaro’s lack of sabermetric thinking coupled with an aging roster of stars might very well be the catalyst behind this rumor. Regardless, if the Phillies hope to rebuild their struggling franchise, they need to seriously consider available trade options. Sometimes in baseball, as in life, you have to let go of the past and embrace the future.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
DODGERS RUMORS: LA, HANLEY RAMIREZ NOT DISCUSSING EXTENSION - SPORTS RUMOR ALERT
Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez has not talked to the club about a contract extension, reports Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.
Morosi noted that while Ramirez wasn't happy to be replaced defensively. When asked specifically about a July trade, Ramirez responded: "Who? Me? I'm not getting traded. I'm a winner, and here it's all about winning."
According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, Ramirez is asking for more than $130 million over six years to avoid free agency. Apparently, the Dodgers are not convinced that Ramirez is capable of staying healthy enough to handle the rigors of the shortstop position.
Let's compare Hanley Ramirez with one of the game's best all-around shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki.On that note, Ramirez has committed an average of fourteen errors per year for the last ten years (139 errors in 2570 attempts) compared to Troy Tulowitzki who has averaged seven per year (64 errors in 2868 attempts) over his nine year career.
Let's compare Hanley Ramirez with one of the game's best all-around shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki.On that note, Ramirez has committed an average of fourteen errors per year for the last ten years (139 errors in 2570 attempts) compared to Troy Tulowitzki who has averaged seven per year (64 errors in 2868 attempts) over his nine year career.
However, Ramirez had the second best OBP in all of MLB for 2013 (based upon a minimum of 251 AB) at 1.040, only trailing Miguel Cabrera (1.078). If you compare Ramirez' 10-year career splits of (.300/.371/.504), at age 30 to Troy Tulowitzki's 9-year splits (298/.372/.518), at age 29, the offensive numbers are similar.
Tulowitzki signed a contract extension in late 2010 for approximately $158 million, with $118 million to be paid out over the next 6 years starting in 2015. In consideration of that fact, a long-term contract extension for Hanley Ramirez becomes more of a compelling argument.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
What's the Mental Side of the Investment?
When evaluating a prospect, on-field performance is important, but it’s not the overriding factor. Just because you see a prospect perform subpar on one occasion doesn’t necessarily suggest his future performance will be subpar. Obviously, you want to see a potential prospect be successful on the field, but the human factor needs to be considered.
Players are not robots. Some of the underlying factors to be considered are: Does the prospect handle pressure well? Is the prospect even keeled, doesn’t get too high or too low? Taking situations in stride is important.
Players are not robots. Some of the underlying factors to be considered are: Does the prospect handle pressure well? Is the prospect even keeled, doesn’t get too high or too low? Taking situations in stride is important.
Whether the prospect goes 4-4 or 0-4, is the mood still upbeat? Seeing the prospect stay positive and playing hard regardless of the circumstances shows commitment and resiliency. As far as statistics go, they can be deceiving. I believe the old adage, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!” In the new age baseball world of sabermetrics, hidden value exists. Some of the old statistical analysis is outdated and does not offer a true assessment of talent. I like to see raw numbers, but I think more intrinsic value can be found elsewhere. For example, does the prospect make “in game” or “pitch by pitch” adjustments at the plate? Does the prospect in the field recognize a hitter’s tendencies or type of pitch thrown to make adjustments accordingly?
So, I consider some of the traditional statistics, but realize many newer methods of evaluating prospects are important. Lastly, the prospects overall demeanor plays a strong role in the process of the evaluation.
So, I consider some of the traditional statistics, but realize many newer methods of evaluating prospects are important. Lastly, the prospects overall demeanor plays a strong role in the process of the evaluation.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Projecting Hitting Ability
I subscribe to a bottom- to- top approach in evaluating hitters.
I ask my younger hitters this question: “If you and I were to build a house, would we need a strong foundation?”
They usually say yes, with a laugh. With that said, we work on establishing a strong base. In my opinion, this is a fundamental component of evaluating a position player’s hitting ability. I look for a smooth balance in weight shift from front foot to back foot. I want to see a powerful shift of hip rotation from back to front. Additionally, I want to see how the hitter sets up at the plate: I observe where his feet are and if the stance is open or closed; if the hitter is up in the box or back and if the hitter stands closer to the plate or further away.
Another question that I usually ask is: “If you were to throw a punch at me, how would you throw it?” I get a laugh or a smirk, then the hitter will demonstrate. More times than not, the hitter will wind up and throw a wide punch. I then push the hitter slightly and the hitter loses balance. I throw a make-believe punch with my hands closer to my body and ask the hitter “Push me!” More smirks and laughter. If I ate my Wheaties that morning, I keep my balance and I’m steady. I then ask, “What hand position gives me more power, balance, and control? Hands further away from my body or hands closer to my body?”
Point being, I look for hands closer to the body that work fluidly with hip rotation, as smoothly as a pendulum on a grandfather clock. I look for hands that are going back in the load and explosive coming “to and through” the ball.
Other important things that I look for in a hitter is visual swagger. Not cockiness, but confidence. The hitter has a plan and understands the in-game situation (count, who’s on base, how many outs, tendencies of the pitcher). I don’t want to see “paralysis by analysis” but more of being your own best coach. Does the hitter adjust from game to game, at bat to at bat, and pitch by pitch? Also, I look for point of contact. Does the hitter consistently square up the ball? Does the hitter finish the swing after contact? On that note, I work with hitters on visualizing hitting the ball with their hands. “Eyes to, hands thru!” In terms of finishing, we talk about visualizing the hitting of four baseballs from contact to finish.
In my opinion, all of these observations vary according to the developmental stage of the particular hitter. Obviously, my projected evaluation of a middle school player might be different than a high school player. Similarly, a projected evaluation could be different from high school to college and college to professional.
Overall, there are myriad variables, including the mindset of the hitter, if the hitter is coachable and has inner confidence, as well as the potential for physical and mental growth.
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Prospecting for Gold
On the surface, the General Manager's position in professional baseball seems glamorous, but behind the scenes, it's an extremely difficult and all-inclusive position. A GM is responsible for all decision-making aspects of a baseball franchise with the main goal of delivering a championship team to ownership. Some of those responsibilities include the following: the hiring and firing of coaching staff, player development, scouting, negotiating contracts, mediating player disputes, as well as being involved with the selling of tickets, television, radio sponsorships, and merchandise for the club. If all of this wasn't enough, a GM will represent an organization at league meetings, salary arbitration, negotiate with agents, prepare for amateur drafts, manage payroll, and comply with the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. A successful General Manager will serve as a bridge between the Chairman of the Board and the management staff. By expressing an overall vision and developing a team mission, the GM will show leadership; this attribute allows the GM to successfully identify team needs and provide solutions.
The General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, stated that he doesn't interact with players as frequently as when he was an Assistant Scouting Director or Director of Player Development. Therefore, he feels that it's extremely important to trust an organization's scouts and player development personnel. In his current role, he shared that the hardest aspect of his position is addressing rumors associated with social media. Additionally, he acknowledged that dealing with player agents can sometimes be problematic. Mr. Melvin's philosophy is to be a strong draft and player development organization. Being a small-market club, the revenue generated for television is less than the large market teams. This creates more of a priority in maintaining a high fan base in Milwaukee. From a player standpoint, the Milwaukee General Manager looks for youth up the middle (SS, CF, C, P). His desire is to develop home-grown talent and be able to trade prospects for major league ready players. By accomplishing this, the Brewers can look to be competitive without risking payroll on high-priced free agents. Sometimes, there is a need for a free agent, but Melvin confirmed that the small-market team cannot be aggressive like large-market franchises. This overall mindset has led to some success for Brewers, but Doug Melvin feels the biggest challenge for a franchise is sustaining success.
Another baseball operations role that contributes to a successful club is player development.
The Assistant Director of Baseball Operations for the New York Yankees, Billy Hart, played college baseball at USC and was subsequently drafted by the Houston Astros in the 5th round of the 2005 draft. After five seasons, Billy was released and went back to school. After completing his MBA, Mr. Hart started his second career in baseball via the operations side. Some of his responsibilities include: player logistics for spring training, player placement, roster management, contract origination, and talent evaluation. During the season, Billy will go to each minor league affiliate before and after the All-Star break to evaluate players based upon performance and trade evaluation. In the off-season, the Assistant Director of Baseball Operations will work on free-agent contracts, manage department budgets, and conduct financial and statistical analysis. Also, Mr. Hart will go to amateur tournaments and compile a prospect analysis book. He takes the responsibility for putting together organizational structures aimed at player performance.
For an on-the-field perspective, I spoke to the hitting coach of the AA Chattanooga Lookouts, Orv Franchuk. Orv was gracious enough to explain what a typical work day for him is like: review practice and game footage of players' at-bats, conduct specific player hitting drills, overhand toss, tee work, traditional batting practice, and charting hitters’ performance. Mr. Franchuk described today's player as being more refined, but the mental side of the game should be more of a focus at the minor league level. He suggested that mental makeup is what separates a AA player from a major league player. The Lookouts hitting instructor looks for a strong work ethic. Orv encourages players to work on a game plan before they come to the plate, for example, working on pitch selection, location, and various game situations. Orv said "A lot of AA players have the physical ability for the majors, but not the mental ability." Mr. Franchuk emphasized that the most important part of his job is to develop trusting relationships with his players. By encouraging players to be better communicators and staying open to suggestions, the players will adjust to expected failure as they progress to higher levels of ball.
Continuing with the top-down approach, you must look at one of the most important aspects of a successful franchise: scouting. It's often said by various front office personnel that scouting is the "life-blood" of the game. These people find the talent and project a player's raw tools that hopefully will translate into big league skills. The scouting hierarchy is as follows: Associate Scout, Area Scout, Regional Supervisor, National Cross-Checker, Assistant Director of Scouting, and Director of Scouting. In most organizations, player information flows up the chain of command to the Director of Player Development or the General Manager. Additionally, Pro Scouts and Special Assignment Scouts might report directly to either Director or the General Manager. Regardless of your level or title, your main objective is to make an opinion based upon the players that you see. Scouts come in all shapes and sizes, some are former players, and some just started at the bottom and worked their way up. Credibility is established based upon your professionalism, ability to scout, and communicating your reports effectively.
Hudson Belinsky, Associate Scout for the Tampa Bay Rays got his start by going to games and doing his own scouting reports. He started a blog and subsequently received an internship opportunity with Baseball Prospectus. On one occasion, Hudson travelled two hours to see a particular pitcher and his passion was recognized by a scout in attendance. This scout appreciated Hudson's initiative and recommended him.
Bryan Hayes, Assistant Manager to Amateur Scouting Director for the New York Mets started as a bat boy for the Norfolk Tides and subsequently became a student manager for Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. Based upon that experience, Bryan got a position with the San Diego Padres in the Community Relations department and was noticed by Paul Depodesta, VP of Scouting and Player Development, who brought him over to the New York Mets. Prior to the 2013 draft, Mr. Hayes was responsible for registering each player with an identification number and writing up a biography of those players. Currently, he's helping the organization prepare for the 2014 draft by reading all scouting reports, following up with area scouts, and making sure the scouting reports can be used effectively by the Director of Scouting. Once the 2014 draft is completed, Bryan will resume scouting duties and see players approximately two times per month. Mr. Hayes looks for tools, mental make-up, and body type to complete a player profile. By looking at potential prospects, Bryan makes a determination regarding the player's desire. Mr. Hayes stated, "The player could have all the talent, but you have to want it.”
RJ Carvis, Video Coordinator of Player Development for the Los Angeles Dodgers started as a Division III College Pitcher and eventually became a fall roster walk on for Arizona State University. While playing in the Coastal Plains League, RJ hurt his arm, which ended his baseball dreams as a player. After his playing career ended, Mr. Carvis was able to get a Spring training job with the Oakland Athletics in their stadium operations department and subsequently got an intern opportunity with the New York Mets media operations. RJ is currently assigned to a minor league affiliate within the Dodgers organization and he is responsible for video scouting reports on players. Mr. Carvis likes to look for little things when scouting players: for example, the difference between head movement and hand movements of hitters in warm-ups versus live game action. RJ stated, "The natural talents shine through when a player makes small adjustments.”
Taking all this information into consideration, I would like to make a personal assessment of the Atlanta Braves organization. The original Braves ball club was established in 1871 and has been in Atlanta since 1966. In 2017, they will relocate to a $672 million complex. From 1991-2005, the Atlanta Braves won fourteen consecutive division titles. In their history, they have won sixteen division titles, seventeen National League Pennants, and three World Series. They remain the only Major League Baseball franchise to win the World Series in three different cities. In 2013, the Braves were the National League East Champions with a record of 96-66. Their home attendance was approximately 2.6 million with an average of 31,000 fans per game and an average ticket price of approximately $17. According to Forbes Magazine, the franchise was valued at $629 million, with a 2013 payroll of approximately $90 million and revenue of approximately $225 million. In the last three years, the Braves have drafted and signed approximately 94 players. Out of the total, 49 have been pitchers, 12 outfielders, 10 catchers, and 8 shortstops. Additionally, only 13 were high-school players. It would appear that their drafting strategy follows the idea of being strong up the middle and having more seasoned prospects.
In regards to the structure and behavior of this team, the Braves strive for consistency. Whether it's in the draft, player development, front office, or on-the -field personnel, the Braves strive to hold onto their home grown talent and maintain strong leadership. With the most recent long-term signings of Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Julio Teheran, and contract extensions given to Frank Wren, General Manager, and Fredi Gonzalez, Manager, it is clearly evident that John Schuerholz, the President, as well as ownership, have a shared vision of continued success.
Regardless of all the smart front-office moves, nothing would be possible without the scouting department. The Director of Scouting, Tony Demacio, looks for players who "dance in the middle of the diamond”and subscribes to the "old school" ideology of finding players that "can't live without the game." Tony said, "They play the game the way it should be played, hard." Also, he adheres to the previous Scouting Director Paul Snyder's philosophy to build a club around pitching. In his opinion, the Atlanta Braves scouts have done a very good job of getting inside the home of potential prospects to find those high character players. By adhering to an honest, professional, and discreet approach, the scouting staff has been very successful over the years. Overall, this windfall of talent has resulted in raw prospects transitioning into Major League stars.
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